Innovation is More Than a Buzzword; It’s The Mission

Our first article examined the Great Power Competition and how it has blurred the lines of war and peace. In this article, we will examine in greater detail how myriad emerging and disruptive dual-use technologies are similarly blurring the line between defence and civilian tech and how, more than ever, true innovation is the only way the West will maintain its relative advantage in this Competition.

It is important to stress upfront that though a good deal of the language and examples used in this article may appear to speak more directly to classically understood military applications, it is imperative to keep in mind that the Competition we find ourselves in extends beyond the military battlespace and the principles discussed herein apply equally to matters of national and economic security, directly as a result of the dual-use nature of emerging technologies.

Technology = Defence Defence = Technology

"Conventional forecasts on technological change often make the common error of assuming that innovation simply replaces old technologies on a one-to-one basis." Myriad technologies, each of which would be disruptive on their own, are reaching maturity nearly simultaneously and their development is overwhelmingly being led by industry, rather than government. This has society-wide implications for everything from the semiconductors that power our consumer electronics to hypersonic missiles.

Moreover, these technologies often work in concert to offer literal quantum leaps in advancement. For example, as computing power continues to increase, AI grows more powerful, thereby leading to breakthroughs in biotechnology, but also how drones can operate autonomously in complicated environments. As regards defence, this has led to the rapid decentralization and democratization of capabilities, which are creating asymmetric effects in the battlespace; OODA loops are compressed, kill-chains are shorter and large systems are more vulnerable. Unlike the development of the atomic bomb or stealth bomber, the speed of technological advancement is such that any advantage gained in the Great Power Competition is likely to be comparatively fleeting. Innovation is the only answer.

As the war in Ukraine has amply demonstrated, the traditional machinery of war will continue to have its place in the battlespace for the foreseeable future, but the proper application of technology can indeed confer a relative and significant advantage. Development of the next generation of tanks, artillery and fighter aircraft must therefore continue, but these systems alone will not win the next war.

Innovating to offset

"Today is by no means the first time warfare has rapidly changed at the same time that disruptive technologies have emerged and global rivalries have intensified. In the 20th century, the U.S. successfully navigated such periods by turning to what are called 'offset strategies,' wide-ranging military innovations that create a qualitative advantage to make up for a quantitative disadvantage."

The First Offset strategy was pursued in the 1950's and 60's when the US expanded its atomic capabilities to offset Soviet conventional superiority in Europe. The Second Offset strategy, designed to prevent the Soviets from overrunning Eastern Europe without resort to nuclear weapons, saw the development of capabilities such as sensor networks, stealth aircraft and precision munitions. The Third Offset strategy began in 2014 with a focus on AI and human- machine collaboration as a means of enhancing decision-making and operational effectiveness to counter China's growing offensive and defensive capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.

Any advantage gained in the Great Power Competition is likely to be comparatively fleeting. Innovation is the only answer.

This brings us to the Fourth Offset, or Offset-X, specifically meant to invalidate the investments China has made to defeat the US/Western militaries and inject uncertainty into Chinese planning by giving Western forces a range of options along the spectrum of conflict.

Offset-X includes 10 initiatives, three of which make plain that the future of defence and national security lie in the full exploitation of dual-use technology. First, militaries must fully embrace fighting as a distributed, networked force, which means gaining and maintaining resiliency in the ability to sense, communicate and move. Second, AI and human- machine collaboration must permeate all facets of operations from planning to execution. Finally, forces should prioritize embedding and using software in all future decision aids, combat systems and operations. Software is what will add agility to the application of current and future combat systems, enhancing their effectiveness and maintaining their relevance as long as possible.

A fourth initiative is especially relevant to Canada - that the US help allies and partners develop interoperability and interchangeability with US forces. This is both a recognition of the fact that the US cannot go it alone but also a clarion call to ideologically aligned nations to invest today for peace tomorrow.

Is Canada ready, willing, and able to answer this call?

Tomahawk Robotics

Our policy heart is in the right place

Whether or not Offset-X is the perfect strategy is irrelevant if we lack the will and means to make the decisions and changes necessary to realize its vision. Officially at least, Canada has said all the right things. Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE), Canada's most recent defence policy, published in 2017, seems to recognize not just the need to innovate, but the reality that innovation requires a Whole of Society approach: "[i]n this new environment, Canada’s military needs a fundamentally new approach to innovation that allows it to better tap into the extraordinary talent and ingenuity resident across the country." Indeed, not only does Canada have the highest educated workforce in the world, but we are globally recognized for our competitive AI cluster and have an early foothold in quantum computing. These sectors, along with many others, are primed and ready to be leveraged.

SSE also signaled the launch of the Innovation for Defence and Security (IDEaS) Program, meant to address the above-described challenges: IDEaS is still finding its feet, but it is a bright spot in Canadian defence innovation. It is one of the truly forward looking programs in Canada, attempting to solve tomorrow’s problems today. It has helped to scale companies such as Sapper Labs Group, whose technology has already innovated in both the defence and national security domains.

Heartening though it is that our strategic policy is unambiguously in favour of innovation, the ground truth is that the CAF remains woefully sclerotic and it is further hindered by a procurement system that is painfully slow and cumbersome and does not reflect the realities of the 21st century. If anything, we're attempting to prepare for future conflict with systems and policies left over from the Second Offset.

Getting from theory to practice

First and foremost, Canada must adopt a truly innovative mindset. Procuring and fielding technology already in use by other militaries is not innovation - it is merely playing catchup. True innovation requires making changes in response to a strategic, future vision. Second, though not purely unique to Canada, we must find ways to speed procurement cycles. This is particularly so in light of the fact that, as evidenced in Offset-X, software will be king. We cannot procure software the same way we do we F-35s, nor can we develop it ourselves. Barriers to entry must therefore be lower, decision-makers must be enabled and encouraged to take calculated risks, and they must also be able to fail early, and cheaply.

The inescapable conclusion, which SSE acknowledges, is that partnership with industry is the only way forward. Not only because industry is the wellspring of dual-use technological innovation, but also because private industry, and capital, are by their very nature designed to take the risk necessary to develop, test, scale, and field the technology that will perpetuate our relative advantage in the Great Power Competition.

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